Natural disasters – such as bushfires – are forecast to become more dangerous in a time of rising temperatures. Photo: Karyn Starmer.
Heat-related deaths would more than double in some Australian cities and 1.5 million coastal residents will be displaced due to rising sea levels within 25 years, according to the very first National Climate Risk Assessment.
That 274-page report (with more than a thousand pages of accompanying submissions, research and analysis) was released on Monday (15 September) and provides sobering reading to say the least.
Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen described it as “confronting”, while the Climate Council has called it “terrifying”.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says it is a “wake-up call for anyone who denies the science of climate change”.
And in what can only be regarded as an understatement, Mr Bowen also added: “It means the national climate health strategy is important.”
This time around, there will be no excuses for getting climate change policy wrong.
The Federal Government will this week release its 2035 emissions reduction target.
Whether it and accompanying emissions reduction measures tackle the threats seriously enough is yet to be revealed.
If it doesn’t – if Labor doesn’t face this challenge front on with serious climate change initiatives – Australia’s future looks bleak.
The Coalition is still arguing within itself over whether climate change is serious enough for a net-zero emissions reduction by 2050 goal, let alone a 2035 interim target.
Frontbencher Andrew Hastie has just threatened to quit the shadow ministry if the Opposition doesn’t drop the net zero commitment.
That’s the last thing Opposition Leader Sussan Ley needs after last week’s Coalition upheaval.
Her initial response to the report’s release, however, has been weak and merely offers to “examine the assumptions” behind it while warning against “alarmist language” and Labor’s failures.
The Greens can apply serious pressure in the Senate, but they’re all but redundant in the Lower House.
Independents in the current parliamentary configurations have to join together to be properly heard.
So it’s up to this Labor Federal Government to get it right.
To put the future health and safety of Australia – its people, its places, its natural environment and species – ahead of the interests of big business, greed, wanton development and fossil fuels.
Whether Labor will deliver on that front is far from certain.
Look at the consequences if the right policies are not put in place now.
The report modelled the impacts of warming temperatures under three scenarios between 1.5°C and 3°C.
Heatwave deaths in Sydney would double under a 1.5 °C temperature warming increase and jump by a massive 444 per cent under a 3°C scenario.
Further south, in Melbourne, deaths from heatwaves would rise by 259 per cent under 3°C, and 60 per cent under 1.5°C warming.
That’s just a couple of state capitals on the coast. Regional localities would be hit even harder.
The report notes that warming in some locations across the continent has already reached 1.5°C.
Led by the Australian Climate Service, this inaugural assessment isn’t a flimsy or politically motivated piece of research.
It is real science, and the science is real.
It has modelled the impacts (health, economic and environmental) of increased heatwaves, droughts, storms, bushfires and floods on communities across Australia.
It’s not pretty reading.
And it is pretty clear in stating that we can no longer rely on past actions to help us survive what the future has in store if nothing is done about it.
Here are a few insights from the report that should shock the country into action.
“The country is likely to experience more intense and extreme climate hazards, and in some cases, in areas where people and places haven’t experienced these hazards before,” it states.
“Climate science indicates that our future extreme weather is likely to differ significantly from the past.
“Changes in the timing, duration, intensity and spatial patterns of hazards are likely, with many events occurring more frequently, in combination or affecting new locations.
“The change in distribution, timing and severity of extreme weather events means that historical observations on their own are not likely to be a good indicator of future risk.
“Australia currently experiences compounding and cascading hazards, and this is going to increase.
“Concurrent events and reduced time between severe events will become more common.”
Climate Council chief executive Amanda McKenzie says the government must cut coal, oil and gas emissions at the source, and legislate the strongest possible 2035 target. She is right.
Emergency Leaders for Climate Action, a group of 28 former state and territory fire and emergency chiefs, says we’re almost at the “point of no return”.
Founding member and former NSW Fire Commissioner, Greg Mullins, has called for an ambitious 2035 climate target and massive investment to prepare for “supercharged” weather events.
“This can’t just be another report that ministers read over a coffee and then try to forget about. The details are too confronting,” he said.
“Australians expect a strong national plan to act on this climate emergency, not a timid climate target.”
He is right, too.
Let’s hope, for all our sakes, that the Federal Government gets it right.
