Peter Dutton campaigning in Sydney yesterday: “If you’ve got doubts about Labor … don’t vote for them.” Photo: Peter Dutton Facebook.
Final polling figures released before the federal election indicate Labor is on track to not only win government but increase its majority.
The ominous news for the Opposition came as the Coalition released its policy costings, showing what shadow treasurer Angus Taylor says is a $14 billion improvement in the budget position over the next four years.
The first two years under a Coalition government, however, would see a worse budget bottom line than under Labor, according to the Opposition’s own figures.
It’s the forward estimates, Mr Taylor stressed, that were the most important projections because they show long-term improvements to Australia’s debt position.
“This is the biggest improvement in the budget position since the current costing conventions were put in place almost 15 years ago,” Mr Taylor said.
Coalition costings include savings from reducing the Australian Public Service by 41,000 “Canberra-focused” jobs, but only through natural attrition and voluntary redundancies.
Infrastructure projects, including Canberra’s new-look convention centre and Civic pool, would also be out the window.
The Coalition would also, among other things, cut foreign aid by $814 million and place a tax on vaping.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers responded by labelling the Coalition’s costings as not close to being a credible alternative to the government’s.
“Higher taxes, savage cuts and still bigger deficits under the Coalition are in their costings today,” Dr Chalmers said.
Labor’s Member for Fenner Andrew Leigh was even more pointed in his criticism.
“These costings send a blunt message,” the Assistant Minister said.
“The Liberals see Canberra as a place to take from, not invest in – cutting $102 million from infrastructure while slashing 41,000 public service jobs.”
Meanwhile, two respected pollsters have predicted a Labor win on 3 May, with the potential for the Coalition to lose seats while independent representation remains significant.
Redbridge’s latest poll shows a Labor win over the Coalition 53-47 on a two-party preferred percentage basis, while YouGov predicts a firm majority for Labor.
YouGov’s modelling suggests the ALP could win up to 84 seats with the Coalition ending up with just 47 in the 150-seat House of Representatives.
The modelling used by YouGov is known as multi-level modelling and post-stratification (MRP).
The team at YouGov behind the Australian MRP model is the same one that accurately projected the 2023 Spanish election, the 2024 UK general election and the 2025 German federal election.
However, the modelling projects a range of results, with Labor on course to win between 76 and 85 seats, the Coalition taking 45 to 53 seats, the Greens two to five, independents 13 to 16 and others between two and four.
The central projection is the most likely result, according to a pollster, and shows Labor on 84 seats, the Coalition on 47, independents on 14, Greens on three, KAP on one and the Centre Alliance one.
This would result in the Coalition experiencing a net loss of 11 seats from its 2022 result, reducing it to its lowest percentage of seats in the Federal Parliament since 1946.
Director of public data at YouGov, Paul Smith, said the latest polling and modelling signal a dramatic change in voter sentiment in just two months.
“Labor is poised to win an increased majority. This is a dramatic campaign turnaround considering our data in February pointed to a likely Coalition government,” he said.
“YouGov’s MRP shows Labor will now win decisively in the outer suburban and regional marginal seats that tend to decide Australian elections.
“It was in these types of electorates where the Coalition was leading just a couple of months ago.”
Anthony Albanese campaigning in Sydney this week. Photo: Anthony Albanese Facebook.
Anthony Albanese, however, said he believed it to still be a very tight race that could go either way.
“I’m nervous. Elections are tough and they’re tough to win,” the Prime Minister said during a commercial radio interview.
“And here’s a little fun fact for you. There has not been a Prime Minister re-elected since John Howard in 2004 – 21 years. We’ve had a revolving door.
“And part of my argument is there’s a lot of instability in the world … And we need some stability. My government offers that.”
Peter Dutton said if Australians have doubts about Mr Albanese, they shouldn’t give him a second term.
“If you’ve got doubts about Labor, doubts about what would happen with the Voice, doubts about what would happen with Labor’s new taxes, don’t vote for them,” the Opposition Leader said.
“Don’t vote for a Labor-Greens government which will be high taxing, high spending, and as a result, inflation goes up and interest rates go up as well.”
