David Pocock supporters watching the count on election night. Photo: Thomas Lucraft.
Saturday night’s federal election result was a stunner.
Polls had been indicating a Labor win for some weeks – spurred on by the Coalition’s sloppy campaign – yet the magnitude of victory took many by surprise, even within the most senior ranks of the Federal Government itself.
But while there are so many takeaway messages for the major parties from the election’s result (and I’ll get to that shortly), there’s one huge lesson for Labor right here in the nation’s capital.
The days of Canberra being a no-holds-barred, dyed-in-the-wool, mindlessly following Labor town are now gone.
The trend began in 2022 when David Pocock won a Senate seat as an independent.
It became entrenched on Saturday when he was not only returned, but easily topped the Senate vote ahead of Labor’s Katy Gallagher.
But it’s not just in the Senate where the ACT has delivered a sobering reality check for the ALP.
Region was the first and only media outlet or political pundit to declare ahead of the election that the seat of Bean was going to be a hard one for Labor to retain.
While other commentators dismissed independent Jessie Price’s campaign as little more than an annoyance for Labor (and while even the ABC’s Antony Green* declared it too safe a Labor seat for it to be lost), this correspondent called the battle for Bean to be shaping up as a very tight contest.
Turns out it was, despite the keyboard warriors saying it was a crazy claim to make.
There are a number of reasons Bean has gone down to the wire in this election, with the close count continuing.
Labor believed its incumbent, David Smith, sitting on a 12.9 per cent margin (that’s regarded as a very safe Labor seat), was too ensconced to be removed – at least in this Labor town.
That was their first mistake.
Allowing Mr Smith to cruise through the last term as a relative unknown to his constituents and barely ramping up his activity during the election campaign was the next blunder.
Another reason Bean has been the contest to watch is that Jessie Price was an outstanding candidate, offering a genuine alternative to the same-old, same-old way of doing politics in the capital.
That Senator Pocock also endorsed her at local campaign rallies should have been enough to alert the commentators that Ms Price was a real threat to Mr Smith – and it should have also been enough for Labor to put a rocket under him.
Nothing has reeked more of ‘entitlement’ than Labor’s approach to the electorate of Bean.
Mr Smith might still scrape back in – or not – but regardless of the final result, the ALP has been delivered a powerful message at the hands of savvy voters who know when they’re being taken for granted.
Independent Jessie Price ran an outstanding campaign in the seat of Bean. Photo: Chris Johnson
If it turns out Ms Price is elected the Member for Bean, she will start the term already being more easily recognised by her constituents than the man she ousted.
Either way, turning Bean into a marginal seat is the best outcome for the ACT.
Which brings us to the national result and the role Canberra played in it.
Peter Dutton did not learn the lesson that was so strongly delivered to Scott Morrison at the last federal election – that Canberra bashing and denigrating the public service is no longer a vote winner for the Coalition.
With this election, the Liberals have probably handed David Pocock a Senate seat for life if he wants it.
Neither, it seems (thankfully), is the politics of negative division, Trumpism, and extreme ideology a vote winner to any degree in modern-day Australia.
Australians rejected that in spades on Saturday night, and the now-former Opposition Leader is licking his wounds without an electorate to represent.
Whether the Liberals and Nationals accept they must learn from this electoral wipeout and get back to more moderate and centrist issues is yet to be seen.
Early signs aren’t yet offering any hope that they will. While they don’t, the treasury benches of Federal Parliament will remain elusive.
And now to Labor and its strategic campaign and more than impressive win.
Anthony Albanese’s victory speech on election night would have cemented in many voters’ minds that they made the right choice.
The Prime Minister looked and sounded prime ministerial, even in the raptures of having executed a mighty conquest.
He spoke in unifying terms and of an inclusive, forward-focused Australia.
With this victory, Mr Albanese has taken a giant step towards being talked about in the same terms as Bob Hawke and John Howard when it comes to leadership, statesmanship and political nous.
Let’s hope the newly re-elected Prime Minister and Labor government don’t get carried away with their own ‘greatness’ and leave the country behind them.
It’s happened before.
(*PS. I’m actually a huge fan of Antony Green – happy retirement.)
