Hanson considers position as Coe waits in wings

Actually, the Libs found a few socially liberal moderate candidates, all with solid careers outside of politics, this time around. Problem is, many have lost out to conservatives who have been endorsed by organisations like the ACL and Right to Life (the latter’s website has a list of preferred candidates who are mainly Libs).

Clearly the result says something, although whether about the Liberal Party itself, the kind of person who votes for the Liberal Party in the ACT, or just the advantage that comes from having lots of churchy help (the Lib’s version of union minions, although they have clearly helped Ramsay too), I don’t know.

It is a serious problem for the libs that Canberrans think of them as social conservatives. That might be fine elsewhere, but not here, in highly educated, open minded Canberra. There were undoubtedly many people this election who would have loved a more economically rational government, but not at the expense of their social rights. Kate Carnell, Jeremy Hanson and Elizabeth Lee have all done well here, but they have been successful at promoting themselves as moderates outside the usual party channels. Others havent had that option. I had to seriously research to find the moderate candidates. I doubt many other people could be bothered, even if they were able. Too risky to vote Liberal when you may be voting for an Abbott or an Abetz. That leaves mainly only the true conservatives voting Lib, the true conservatives getting up as a result, and the party becoming increasingly less electable in the Territory as a result.

JC said :

Acton said :

So now you’ve got your tram, how are you going to pay for it? Where is 1.78 billion dollars going to come from? Borrowing money today means you and your children have to pay off that debt tomorrow.
I don’t care.
What impact will raising rates by 10% every year have on families, the elderly and young couples with big mortgages?
I don’t know.
Do you care that landlords will pass on 10% rates rises to tenants as higher rents? The cost of living goes up and housing affordability goes down for everyone, including you.
It’s too hard to think about. I’ll just have another latte and send a tweet to show how clever and progressive I am. Maggie who?
[[“The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money”]]

Whilst $1.78b looks like a big scary number, do remember that that is an indexed figure over 20 years. The figure in today’s dollars is $939m, of which $707m is the construction cost, which includes $117m of contingency (so may not be spent) and $232m is the running and finance costs over 20 years.

Of that $939m $305m is a one off payment on completion of which $60m is from the asset reclcying scheme. And then the remainder is paid off at the rate of $64m (on average over the course of 20 years). The actual figures though are $47m in first year (line won’t be open the full year, $54m in second year, increasing through to 2038 where it is $75m.

So what the budget needs to find is $245m for the one off payment, and in 2016 terms $47m p/a for the next 20 years.

So there are 155,000 households in Canberra at present. Taxes make up 32% of the annual territory budget and rates make up 27% of taxes. So in 2016 terms based on the $54m, payment the ‘hit’ to rates if you will is actually a one off payment of $137 per household, plus $30 per house hold per year, or 58c per week over 20 years. In 2016 terms.

So your point?

His point is that big numbers are scary and surely will convince the electorate to vote the Liberals in….

Acton said :

So now you’ve got your tram, how are you going to pay for it? Where is 1.78 billion dollars going to come from? Borrowing money today means you and your children have to pay off that debt tomorrow.
I don’t care.
What impact will raising rates by 10% every year have on families, the elderly and young couples with big mortgages?
I don’t know.
Do you care that landlords will pass on 10% rates rises to tenants as higher rents? The cost of living goes up and housing affordability goes down for everyone, including you.
It’s too hard to think about. I’ll just have another latte and send a tweet to show how clever and progressive I am. Maggie who?
[[“The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money”]]

What happened to Labor being the party that cared about low income earners? ACT Labor seem to be diametrically opposed to how their Federal counterparts want to be seen.

JC said :

So what the budget needs to find is $245m for the one off payment, and in 2016 terms $47m p/a for the next 20 years.

That should be easy. I mean, that last 4 budgets have only had minor deficits of about $400m – $780m. And Barr managed to plug those hole by jacking up rates AND charging stamp duty. And all this despite his lies about it being a revenue neutral move. I’m sure the next few rounds of 10% rates increases will take care of that little $245m amount.

It won’t help those people struggling to pay a mortgage, though. I’m sure the thought of high income earners being able to buy more properties with slightly reduced stamp duty will keep them warm at night when they can’t afford to heat their homes.

JC said :

Acton said :

So now you’ve got your tram, how are you going to pay for it? Where is 1.78 billion dollars going to come from? Borrowing money today means you and your children have to pay off that debt tomorrow.
I don’t care.
What impact will raising rates by 10% every year have on families, the elderly and young couples with big mortgages?
I don’t know.
Do you care that landlords will pass on 10% rates rises to tenants as higher rents? The cost of living goes up and housing affordability goes down for everyone, including you.
It’s too hard to think about. I’ll just have another latte and send a tweet to show how clever and progressive I am. Maggie who?
[[“The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money”]]

Whilst $1.78b looks like a big scary number, do remember that that is an indexed figure over 20 years. The figure in today’s dollars is $939m, of which $707m is the construction cost, which includes $117m of contingency (so may not be spent) and $232m is the running and finance costs over 20 years.

Of that $939m $305m is a one off payment on completion of which $60m is from the asset reclcying scheme. And then the remainder is paid off at the rate of $64m (on average over the course of 20 years). The actual figures though are $47m in first year (line won’t be open the full year, $54m in second year, increasing through to 2038 where it is $75m.

So what the budget needs to find is $245m for the one off payment, and in 2016 terms $47m p/a for the next 20 years.

So there are 155,000 households in Canberra at present. Taxes make up 32% of the annual territory budget and rates make up 27% of taxes. So in 2016 terms based on the $54m, payment the ‘hit’ to rates if you will is actually a one off payment of $137 per household, plus $30 per house hold per year, or 58c per week over 20 years. In 2016 terms.

So your point?

The problem with the cost in 2016 terms is the discount rate used. You’re also only using the payments to the consortium rather than the full cost to government as identified by the auditor general. To get the cost that low, the rate must be something in the order of 6%+, however wages growth and inflation are both well under that level at the moment. Even using a 2.5% rate, being the long term average inflation rate the RBA aims for, the net present cost of Stage 1 is close to $1.4bn. That rate is a reasonable proxy for the increased income residents will receive over time and so a much better rate than that for a secured long term commercial loan.

Acton said :

So now you’ve got your tram, how are you going to pay for it? Where is 1.78 billion dollars going to come from? Borrowing money today means you and your children have to pay off that debt tomorrow.
I don’t care.
What impact will raising rates by 10% every year have on families, the elderly and young couples with big mortgages?
I don’t know.
Do you care that landlords will pass on 10% rates rises to tenants as higher rents? The cost of living goes up and housing affordability goes down for everyone, including you.
It’s too hard to think about. I’ll just have another latte and send a tweet to show how clever and progressive I am. Maggie who?
[[“The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money”]]

Whilst $1.78b looks like a big scary number, do remember that that is an indexed figure over 20 years. The figure in today’s dollars is $939m, of which $707m is the construction cost, which includes $117m of contingency (so may not be spent) and $232m is the running and finance costs over 20 years.

Of that $939m $305m is a one off payment on completion of which $60m is from the asset reclcying scheme. And then the remainder is paid off at the rate of $64m (on average over the course of 20 years). The actual figures though are $47m in first year (line won’t be open the full year, $54m in second year, increasing through to 2038 where it is $75m.

So what the budget needs to find is $245m for the one off payment, and in 2016 terms $47m p/a for the next 20 years.

So there are 155,000 households in Canberra at present. Taxes make up 32% of the annual territory budget and rates make up 27% of taxes. So in 2016 terms based on the $54m, payment the ‘hit’ to rates if you will is actually a one off payment of $137 per household, plus $30 per house hold per year, or 58c per week over 20 years. In 2016 terms.

So your point?

Acton said :

So now you’ve got your tram, how are you going to pay for it? Where is 1.78 billion dollars going to come from? Borrowing money today means you and your children have to pay off that debt tomorrow.
I don’t care.
What impact will raising rates by 10% every year have on families, the elderly and young couples with big mortgages?
I don’t know.
Do you care that landlords will pass on 10% rates rises to tenants as higher rents? The cost of living goes up and housing affordability goes down for everyone, including you.
It’s too hard to think about. I’ll just have another latte and send a tweet to show how clever and progressive I am. Maggie who?
[[“The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money”]]

Make that a double latte.

So now you’ve got your tram, how are you going to pay for it? Where is 1.78 billion dollars going to come from? Borrowing money today means you and your children have to pay off that debt tomorrow.
I don’t care.
What impact will raising rates by 10% every year have on families, the elderly and young couples with big mortgages?
I don’t know.
Do you care that landlords will pass on 10% rates rises to tenants as higher rents? The cost of living goes up and housing affordability goes down for everyone, including you.
It’s too hard to think about. I’ll just have another latte and send a tweet to show how clever and progressive I am. Maggie who?
[[“The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money”]]

JC said :

Some people say I am a Bolshevik, so yeah either or. But at least I don’t pretend to be something I am not to get votes. And that was my point. Idolising someone like Thatcher to the point of having her pic on the office wall says to me more right than portrayed.

It’s an odd world where it’s OK to have a picture of a murderous thug on your wall but having ol’ Maggie up there indicates true evil.

dungfungus said :

JC said :

dungfungus said :

JC said :

A Nonny Mouse said :

I had the impression, not that I paid the Libs much attention, that Coe and most of the rest were of the right-wing Abetz-Bernardi-Abbott faction – unelectable. Hanson was, I thought, the least unprogressive of them and consequently the most electable, not that that counts for much when you consider the sort of company he chose to keep. A swap to Coe would just make things worse for them, I would have thought.

He has a picture a Maggie thatcher on his wall. So maybe I little more to the right than he came across as.

And who do you have a picture of on your wall, JC?

Lenin or Trotsky.

The latter is quoted as saying: ““The end may justify the means as long as there is something that justifies the end.”

That fits.

Some people say I am a Bolshevik, so yeah either or. But at least I don’t pretend to be something I am not to get votes. And that was my point. Idolising someone like Thatcher to the point of having her pic on the office wall says to me more right than portrayed.

Well said, comrade.

Email me if you want an invite to the next committee meeting. Might be able to turn you from blue to red.