The Coalition read far too much into the nation’s rejection of the Voice referendum and what it would mean for the federal election. Photo: Michelle Kroll.
On 30 January 2024, Region published an article quoting a Canberra-based political data analyst saying the Coalition should not be reading too much into its win in the Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum the year before.
Research from Data on Demand showed that a thorough study of all available polling results from shortly after the October 2023 referendum and every week for a few months revealed the Voice outcome was more specific than some political pundits had been suggesting.
Data on Demand managing director and head of research Justin Lazic said at the time that conservative voters and politicians would be foolish to draw anything wider from the referendum’s result than the answer to that poll’s question.
He said the immediate media coverage about the perceived impact the Voice had on voting intentions should be more readily compared to the coverage of Anthony Albanese’s gaffe on day one of the 2022 election campaign (when he stumbled over the unemployment figure and the official cash rate – because he didn’t know them).
It caused a brief shock, but nothing to disturb the long-run trend.
The Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum result didn’t mean Australia was flocking to the conservative side of politics, according to this one political analyst.
“All of this data is based on post-referendum analysis, and this indicates to me that the referendum result does not directly translate to voting intentions,” Mr Lazic said in January last year.
“The Voice result was about exactly that and nothing more.”
That analysis and those comments were made more than a year before the last federal election held this month (3 May).
The consensus at the time, however, was otherwise.
The Coalition had momentum that would build all the way to the Lodge in 2025, was the catchcry of conservative politicians and voters alike.
As the election proved, Mr Lazic was correct (as was Region in publishing the line), while other ‘wise heads’ turned out to be flat wrong.
That point was reinforced in Monday night’s 4 Corners program that dissected the Coalition’s worst ever election loss, which was also the first election to claim an Opposition Leader’s own seat.
Commentary from Liberal and National party insiders, past ministers and shadow ministers, explored how the Coalition’s push to the right under Peter Dutton resulted in an electoral wipeout.
“We alienated women. We offended public servants. We offended multicultural communities. We insulted people who live in the inner cities,” former Liberal minister George Brandis said.
“It was almost as if we were running out of new people to offend.
“I think people who say that it was just because of a bad campaign, that we got the worst result we’ve ever got and ignore the orientation of the party and the image of itself that it projected to the community over some years, are kidding themselves.”
Mr Brandis also talked of the Coalition leadership speaking to an “echo chamber” of far-right conservatives (don’t you just love Brandis’ use of the language?)
Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie contributed, among other things, that the Coalition went into the campaign with a misplaced overconfidence due to the Voice result.
The party wrongly thought most of those who had voted against the Voice would now also vote against Labor.
“People saw that he [Albanese] was prepared to go hard for an idea even if he was going to fail,” Mr Hastie said.
“And I think you can’t quantify that, but … certainly, I think it reflected that people thought he had some convictions.
“He put a referendum, he lost and moved on. But at least people, I think in the end, saw that he was willing to follow through on it.”
Former federal Liberal MP and former NSW president of the party, Jason Falinski, said the Coalition hadn’t hit rock bottom when asked by 4 Corners.
But he added this little gem: “There’s further for us to go, but that’s necessary. I think we’ve put off a lot of arguments for a long time, and it’s time to have it out.”
That’s playing out right now as the Liberals and Nationals continue their on-again, off-again soap opera over how far right they should position themselves, what policies should be retained or dumped, and if they even want to be in a coalition at all.
It seems that in the end, it wasn’t just Mr Albanese who took a whack from the Voice referendum.
The Coalition’s hubris over it caught up with it, too.
