The recently released preliminary draft business case for light rail Stage 2 included three route options for the then-ACT Government to consider. Photo: Michelle Kroll.
All three City to Woden light rail routes considered in the 2019 preliminary draft business case would take longer to travel than the current Rapid bus routes.
The ACT Government recently published a raft of light rail documents after the independent legal arbiter found none of them could claim privilege.
The City to Woden Light Rail Business Case 2019, a preliminary draft prepared by Major Projects Canberra, considered three routes: City to Woden via State Circle East (option 1), City to Woden via Capital Circle (option 2) and City to Woden with the so-called Parkes/Barton ‘dog leg’ (option 3).
The State Circle East route is currently being touted as the preferred route and was recommended in the 2019 business case.
However, the dog leg is back on the table as part of a February referral to the federal environment department under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (EPBC).
The 2019 document reveals the estimated Capital outturn costs and expected trip times.
The travel time of light rail Stage 2 has been a hot debate topic.
Before the 2024 ACT election, Transport Minister Chris Steel refused to be drawn on whether light rail would be slower than the Rapid buses, which complete the Woden to City run in 17 minutes.
Then-Canberra Liberals leader Elizabeth Lee said at the time it was alarming the government continued to avoid answering the question, stating it should “ring alarm bells” for Canberrans.
According to the 2019 document, the State Circle East option had a projected travel time of 25 to 30 minutes, Capital Circle slightly shorter with an expected 23 to 28 minute trip, and the Parkes/Barton option taking 28 to 33 minutes.
It noted the argument shouldn’t just be about comparing light rail and Rapid bus times, as there was “empirical evidence around the world” suggesting people saw light rail as more favourable to buses and that light rail would be “demand driving infrastructure” to shape the way a city grows.
City to Woden light rail was also projected to carry significantly more passengers, with a daily patronage estimated at upwards of 14,000 people.
Difficulties in benchmarking the capital cost of light rail were also noted as being an “especially challenging task”, given the “comparatively little cost information publicly available at a detailed level”.
The total project outturn cost (with sufficient contingency to provide a 75 per cent likelihood that the cost would not be exceeded to deliver the proposed project) for the projects in 2019 was:
- State Circle: $1499.1 million (with $844.3 million in capital costs and $394.2 million contingency)
- Capital Circle: $1531.5 million (with $949.2 million in capital costs and $303.3 million contingency)
- Parkes/Barton: $1513.5 million (with $844.1 million in capital costs and $362.2 million contingency).
It noted the project budget could only be finalised once procurement was completed.
The Parkes/Barton route showed a “significant risk” that the National Capital Plan would need to be amended, as the National Capital Authority felt at the time it didn’t utilise an “existing inter-town public transport route”.
The State Circle route was chosen as the preferred option because the route offered some connectivity to cultural centres in Parkes and Barton, enhanced access to Manuka Oval, offered opportunity for light rail expansion to Kingston in the future, had greater access to Parliament House, had a lower risk of approvals being rejected from the NCA and Commonwealth, had the lowest contingency in respect to planning and the lowest outturn cost.
“The light rail network plan contemplates a potential future route to Fyshwick via Kingston, which could be designed through Parkes and Barton,” it noted.
The preferred alignment does come with some engineering problems, with a tunnel proposed as a solution.
It was noted that a “significant risk” to Stage 2 was the fact that it needed to go through the Parliamentary Triangle.
“There is a significant risk that the Commonwealth Government will seek lease or licence terms in respect of its land which are commercially unacceptable to the Territory,” the 2019 business case noted.
“This would effectively prohibit progression of the Project, even if planning approvals are obtained.”
Guidelines have been issued for the EPBC referral, but the final decision is still pending.
