6 August 2025

'Not important at all': Barr rejects cost-benefit analysis for major infrastructure projects

| By Claire Fenwicke
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Alinga Street light rail stop

The recently released business case for light rail Stage 2 showed the major project had a benefit-cost ratio of less than 1. Photo: Michelle Kroll.

The Chief Minister has stated benefit-cost ratios are “not important at all” when it comes to choosing Canberra’s infrastructure projects.

Andrew Barr made the statement during Budget Estimates when asked by Opposition Leader Leanne Castley how important it was for ratios to exceed ‘1’ for major projects.

“[It’s] not important at all,” he said.

“If you just made every decision on infrastructure on that basis, then … there wouldn’t be many projects that would proceed.”

Mr Barr said the ratios were just one element of decision-making and that while the ratios were required for all ACT Tier 1 projects, they weren’t required for Tier 2 projects.

BCRs (business-cost ratios, also known as cost-benefit analysis or CBAs) are a financial metric used to assess how economically viable a project or investment is.

According to Infrastructure Australia, BCRs are “the most robust tool for economic appraisal”.

“It measures the implications of interventions for the welfare and wellbeing of communities by analysing the social, economic and environmental impacts over their operational life,” its website stated.

A ratio greater than 1 suggests the benefits of a project outweigh the costs, while a BCR less than 1 indicates that costs will exceed benefits.

When pressed by Ms Castley how many projects the ACT Government had supported that had a BCR less than 1, Mr Barr responded that “most projects” would have that outcome.

He argued there was a good reason why obtaining a BCR above 1 wasn’t a necessity.

“You would never fund a hospital or a school, most likely, [as] they don’t generate any revenue, they cost you more,” Mr Barr said.

“There is still a process to run through.”

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Ms Castley said this “revelation” showed that many of the government’s major projects “don’t stack up”.

“ACT Labor have not delivered a surplus in a decade; the deficit for the financial year just gone was $1.3 billion in the red and now they tell us that they don’t need to listen to any cost-benefit analysis when it comes to spending ACT taxpayers’ money,” she said.

“Spending billions of dollars on major projects without proper evaluation is a recipe for waste and mismanagement.”

Ms Castley also used Infrastructure Australia’s publication of business cases to question why the ACT Government doesn’t publish theirs before procurement is completed.

Mr Barr responded that the Commonwealth entity isn’t involved in procurement and that there needed to be some “competitive tension” when projects are put out to tender.

“Common sense to me says don’t tell the market before you even go and engage with them exactly the price and the provision that you’ve made [for the project],” he said.

“I think we do need, in the procurement stage, the ability to approach the market without revealing all of our hand.”

Once procurements are completed, contracts are published on a public register.

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Things became heated between Mr Barr and Ms Castley during Estimates when the Chief Minister was asked why business cases couldn’t be compiled and published once contracts had been signed.

Mr Barr argued it would also be “very time-consuming”.

“The question is, with our limited resources, do we want to tie up the time of a very small team in doing a whole bunch of reporting and what particular benefit?” he said.

“I think there is an appropriate [project cost] threshold to set, and then the question ultimately would be: what benefits?”

Ms Castley interjected that it would give an “understanding [of] how the government is spending [taxpayer] money.”

“Sure, and that is a legitimate argument,” Mr Barr responded.

“But equally, you can see these processes ending up in administration for the sake of it … and just increasing the cost for everything.

“A balance would need to be struck.”

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HiddenDragon10:42 pm 06 Aug 25

There mightn’t be quite the same tone of dismissive arrogance, but essentially the same answer would be given in most other jurisdictions in this sinking-in-debt country.

They’re all chasing their tails, pretending that they’re “building the future”, or b/s to that effect, when all they are really doing is applying very expensive bandaids, in the form of catch-up infrastructure, to an unsustainable national economic model based on bloated population growth.

That sort of public spending will never, in any true sense, pay for itself because it simply serves to enable private profits while deflecting and diffusing enough public discontent to keep the the circus rolling on.

I’m reading that cost doesn’t matter, because for every department that runs over budget, or for every infrastructure project, the ACT taxpayer can just be taxed, billed or levied?

Pretty easy to spend other people’s money!

Vote Libs at the next election. Justify it to yourself remembering that you don’t need a business case or reasoning.

Incidental Tourist5:53 pm 06 Aug 25

Circus. If a business case couldn’t be compiled and published because it’s “too time consuming”, how do they know what they were doing? Similarly if someone can’t outline problems which a school or a hospital are solving (the benefit statement) this person should not pass a job interview.

Our Chief Minister seems to have taken a leaf out of the Trump playbook that dismisses the notion of transparency in government decision making. After decades of budget blow outs I suspect this will be Andrew Barr’s government last term.

Leon Arundell4:04 pm 06 Aug 25

The Chief Minister seems to confuse financial metrics (dollars) with economic metrics (values). Every decision of Andrew Barr’s is based on cost-benefit analysis. A decision to buy a chocolate ice cream, for example, is based on the benefits being greater than the cost, and also being greater than those of obvious alternatives like vanilla. We usually do those cost benefit analyses unconsciously. When public servants do a cost benefit analysis for the government, and the government rejects it, we should ask the government to explain what it believes the public servants got wrong.

What utter rubbish! So now we know why the financial affairs of theCity are in such a shambles…!

Many major infrastructure projects have significant long-term impact on a city’s future, rather than immediate benefits. If Canberra is going to become a great city in the foreseeable future, we need to implement these projects right now, rather than debating on if we should do it.

Which major infrastructure projects would you implement right now, if hypothetically you were our Dear Leader?

Well, it is pretty obvious why the ACT government has failed so badly economically and why taxpayers have the highest taxes in Australia when we have a Chief Minister (who was also the Treasurer until he appointed his protege) controlling our finances who clearly doesn’t understand the economics of management.

Contrary to his explanation, a cost benefit analysis is not limited to financial costs & revenue. It usually includes social, economic and other benefits that make it worth while in both the short term and the longer term. That is why education and healthcare investments stack up economically, as they’re investments that bring long term benefits and also prevent longer term costs of not spending that money.

As for the claim that reporting after contracts are signed would be time-consuming, that would not be the case if the analysis was done properly in the first place, as it could be published transparently without alteration or spin.

That means a statue of Dear Leader is in the works for Garema Place. Money is no obstacle

No wonder the ACT budget is in a mess. A BCR may sound like technical mumbo jumbo but it is really quite simple. Are you paying more than the value the community drives from the project? Really this is a critical question.

davidmaywald1:14 pm 06 Aug 25

The benefit to cost ratio of maintaining Barr as Chief Minister and Labor in power is way less than one… and it does matter (a lot) for the Canberra community.

What complete garbage. Discounted cash flows for major infrastructure projects especially for this light rail debacle are paramount. Then again I doubt there’s an accountant in treasury who knows how to do.one. Typical incompetence

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