The Greens’ machinations have put Chief Minister Andrew Barr on notice. Photo: UC Media.
No matter how fantastic the reports seem of a Liberal-Green plot to bring down the Barr Government, Labor is now on notice that it cannot be guaranteed of the ACT Greens support in the Legislative Assembly.
The fact that sources on both sides of politics have confirmed that the two parties are seriously considering combining on a possible vote of no confidence and some sort of power-sharing deal shows that there is substance to the plan, no matter how much Mark Parton and Shane Rattenbury might try to laugh it off as people just getting carried away with some policy cooperation talks.
What has been revealed to the public is the depth of the Greens’ anger at their perceived shoddy treatment at the hands of Andrew Barr when the minor party was in government.
Labor is probably reaping what it sowed when it dudded the Greens in how ministerial positions were apportioned, in effect giving them titles without much power, as Rebecca Vassarotti and Emma Davidson, the two Greens who lost their seats, discovered.
It may have been clever politics at the time to retain real power with the Labor ministers, but it also led to a bitter breakup and recriminations.
The Greens themselves had unrealistic expectations, and inevitably disappointed their members by not delivering as much as they had hoped.
Labor will now be watching its back, waiting for the circumstance in which the Greens might say all bets are off, possibly a corruption finding or the budget outcome.
But it would have to be pretty dire for such a move to have any traction with the public.
Of course, the Greens could simply be waving a stick to extract concessions from the government.
What’s bringing two polar opposite parties together is a common hatred of Labor, a belief that the government is rotten and that Canberrans need and deserve a new one.
Just 15 months into the term, the only vote that counts is the one in the Assembly and the magic number is 13, even though most Greens voters would have preferenced Labor, or an independent and vice versa, not the Canberra Liberals.
The emergence of names such as Stephen Doyle from Advance, Zed Seselja and even Alistair Coe reveal who is in charge at the Liberals, the desperation at wanting to be in government and the employment of realpolitik to achieve it.
Yet those names are poison to the Greens’ base, as are the Greens to Liberal members, which is why some Labor strategists believe any Greens deal with the Liberals will see both parties destroyed when they have to face the people.
Unless, of course, they can somehow perform miracles in government without upsetting anyone.
How would a Liberal-Green government actually operate when there is so little common ground?
What would happen to light rail, which has been the Greens’ pet project but the Liberals’ bête noire? How can the budget be repaired quickly without slashing spending and services, or raising taxes? The Assembly, as Mr Barr says, has little appetite for any of that.
Would there be a Liberal fire sale of land for new “traditional” suburbs?
Would they cave in to every interest group opposing Labor initiatives?
Where would the necessary trade-offs come from, and how long would it take before the whole enterprise collapsed?
It is nigh on impossible to envisage it succeeding.
But in the meantime, both parties’ brands have been trashed, members antagonised, and the credibility of Mr Rattenbury and Mr Parton seriously dented.
The Labor Government has some big barnacles, but they should answer for them at the ballot box.
If Mr Rattenbury and Mr Parton want power, a sham marriage is not the way to do it. Do the work.
