Tuggeranong is now expected to grow faster than originally anticipated, according to a new report. Photo: Facebook.
Tuggeranong, Weston Creek and Woden Valley are all expected to grow faster than previously anticipated, according to a new population projection report.
ACT Population Projections 2025-2065 confirms Canberra will be home to half a million people in 2027, nearly 700,000 people by 2050 and that the population will exceed 800,000 people in 2065.
“This means our city’s population is expected to increase annually by around 8000 people on average over the next 40 years,” Treasurer Chris Steel said.
“Much of the growth in our population will continue to come from net migration, with the ACT seen as a destination of choice for large numbers of Australians and overseas arrivals.”
The total ACT population levels in the latest report are largely consistent with 2022 projections, but the most significant changes relate to the redistribution of growth across Canberra’s districts over the projections.
It’s largely down to a change in the projection methodology, now using the ‘Dynamic Model of Housing Growth’ to better accommodate planning changes such as those aimed at missing-middle projects, and to take migration into existing suburbs into greater account.
Mr Steel said the projections don’t prescribe where people must live in Canberra, rather it highlighted areas for “potential change” as the city continued to grow.
“The change from the 2022 projections … show the Tuggeranong Valley is projected to grow rather than have a stable or negatively growing population [as was] reported previously,” he said.
“The population report shows Molonglo Valley is still expected to be the fastest growing district, with significant expanded development in Denman Prospect and Whitlam. By 2065, Molonglo Valley is expected to home one-tenth of all Canberrans.
“Along with Molonglo Valley, we expect significant increases in Belconnen, North Canberra, Gungahlin and Woden Valley, although all districts will grow over the 40-year horizon.”
According to the report, the projections reflect growth in the Molonglo Valley, along Canberra’s north-western edge, along the length of the anticipated light rail corridor to Woden, and “to an increasing degree” in urban infill.
“These projections envision a growth profile that is spread more broadly across districts relative to the 2022 projections, driven by changes in planning and changes in modelling methodology,” it stated.
“These projections reflect the choice of future population to move into both emerging suburbs and under the existing urban footprint.”
The number of children born over the projected period is expected to be lower than 2022 predictions, making net migration the more significant contributor to population growth.
North Canberra and Woden are expected to attract more “early-adult” aged people for work and study, Molonglo Valley’s expected to have more young families as it grows, and established areas are predicted to attract “a more balanced migration profile” closer to Canberra’s population as a whole.
Mr Steel said the data would be used by the government to determine the type of city Canberra would be in coming years, and to be used for many aspects of planning, research, policy development and advice.
“It will be our efforts now, and the choices made by Canberrans along the way, that will determine what type of city we will live in by 2065.”
The long-term population projections report was prepared using ACT Treasury’s in-house model, originally commissioned from the Australian National University.
