ANU Professor Ian McAllister released the Australian Election Study at Parliament House on Wednesday. Photo: Tracey Nearmy (ANU).
Inflation has spiked to 3.8 per cent, up from 3.6 per cent and is not the news the Federal Government was hoping to hear as it touts its economic credentials, while the Opposition insists Labor’s spending is spiralling out of control.
But there is some contrasting good news for the government, with the highly regarded Australian Election Study (AES) reporting the Coalition has lost its perceived upper hand over Labor in the economic management stakes.
According to the study, undertaken jointly by the Australian National University and Griffith University, this year’s federal election was the first time in four decades that voters regarded Labor as a better manager of the economy than the Coalition.
The AES has a 40-year history and the latest study, launched at Parliament House on Wednesday (26 November), revealed the first time it recorded voter sentiment trusting Labor more in the traditionally perceived Coalition strength of economic management.
ANU politics professor and co-author of the report, Ian McAllister, said the study showed voters favoured Prime Minister Anthony Albanese over then Opposition Leader Peter Dutton on all leadership characteristics examined in the research.
In addition to losing the Coalition’s reign over economic trustworthiness, Mr Dutton was rejected across all fronts in the study.
“In an environment where political leaders are increasingly important electorally, Peter Dutton’s lack of popularity among voters broke several records,” Professor McAllister said.
“Dutton was the least popular major party leader the AES has ever polled.”
While confidence in Labor’s economic management might have been up in May, the study’s results were released on the same day as the first release of the complete monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).
It showed inflation had climbed to 3.8 per cent in the year to October, from 3.6 per cent the month before.
The big contributors to the annual inflation rise were housing (up 5.9 per cent), food and non-alcoholic beverages (up 3.2 per cent), and recreation and culture (also up 3.2 per cent).
ABS head of prices statistics, Michelle Marquardt, said the release marks the transition from the quarterly CPI to the complete monthly CPI as Australia’s primary measure of headline inflation.
“The time series for the complete Monthly CPI goes back to April 2024, which is when the ABS began collecting prices for a number of Expenditure Classes more frequently,” she said.
Speaking at the National Press Club, shadow treasurer Ted O’Brien blamed the Federal Government for the rise in inflation, saying households and mortgage holders will not be happy with Labor’s management of the economy.
“Inflation is back up to an extraordinary 3.8 per cent, above market expectations, and well above the RBA’s forecasts, both in headline and underlying terms,” Mr O’Brien said.
“With just 29 days until Christmas, this is the worst possible news for struggling mortgage holders who can kiss goodbye to any rare cut at all … The rivers of gold flowing into the Treasury have driven a deep complacency in this government’s economic management.
“They have allowed the Treasurer to act as though his decisions have no cost.
“But they do have a cost — what economists call ‘opportunity cost’.
“Labor’s windfall could have paid off a quarter of our national debt in just four years.”
Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that while the ABS figures show prices had ticked up in annual terms, they were steady for the actual month of October.
“Today’s annual result is higher than we would like but still much lower than what we inherited from our predecessors,” Dr Chalmers said.
“The flat monthly result in October was driven by falls in electricity and fuel prices, and a moderation in housing costs.
“The tick up in annual terms in part reflects temporary factors such as the timing of state energy rebates and volatile items such as travel prices.
“We know that households are still under pressure, and that’s why our responsible cost of living relief is so important.”
Back to the AES, and the study’s co-author, Sarah Cameron from Griffith University, said the wide gender gap that has emerged over the past decade persisted in this year’s election.
“The Coalition attracted the lowest share of votes from women on record, with nine per cent fewer women than men voting for the Coalition,” Dr Cameron said.
“Conversely, Labor attracts more votes from women than men.
“The gender gap in voting for Labor, at five per cent, is about half the size of the Coalition’s.”
This year’s results also show voter volatility continuing to rise, with the highest number of voters in the history of the AES, at 25 per cent, reporting they don’t feel close to any political party.
The proportion of voters who always vote the same way reached its lowest-ever level at 34 per cent.
One of the most significant shifts noticed since the 2022 AES is a dramatic drop in confidence in Australia’s relationship with the United States.
Fifty-five per cent of voters said they had trust in the US to come to Australia’s defence, a significant drop from 73 per cent in the 2022 study.
