Opposition Leader Peter Dutton opposes Trump’s tariffs, but his echoing of some of the US President’s other pronouncements may come back to haunt him. Photo: Michelle Kroll.
Donald Trump’s tariff edicts may be bad news for the world’s exporters and the markets, but his timing during Australia’s election campaign could be crucial to the government not just hanging on but retaining its majority.
Peter Dutton’s eager echoing of Trump’s pronouncements on government waste, the public sector and working from home have already put the frighteners on a lot of voters, and while he has boasted about standing up to the dealmaker-in-chief, by association, he has left himself vulnerable.
If voters aren’t worried about public servants losing their jobs, then the sight of their superannuation going up in flames as share markets tank will terrify them.
Dutton, like just about everybody else, is opposed to tariffs and, of course, will fight in the nation’s interest to oppose them or find a way to be exempted, but having already sounded off about cutting government, ‘woke’ indoctrination in our schools and unis, and the partisan ABC in tones that are undoubtedly Trumpian, it will be a challenge for voters to discern that the hard man of the right has a nuanced position.
For Labor, it is a golden opportunity to tar Dutton with the Trump brush at a time when the world, including Australia, has the jitters.
If Trump is a tariff vandal upending the global order, what credibility do his other fiats have?
Australians, slapped awake by watching their super balances smoking, might rightly deduce we don’t need any of it here.
Expect Labor to hammer this point in the weeks to come, along with the Mediscare campaign, and argue that amid the current turmoil, stability and continuity are vital. No time for changing horses. No time for risks and unknown quantities.
Many Liberals, already disheartened by Dutton’s surprisingly lacklustre start to the campaign and polls showing a drift back to Labor, will be urging a less hairy chested response to Trump’s tariffs, a toning down of his war on woke and an intensified focus on cost of living issues aimed at the mortgage belt suburbs, where the government is vulnerable: interest rates, grocery prices, energy and fuel bills.
Tone will be important.
Albo will aim to sound trustworthy, in charge and competent, a safe pair of hands in turbulent times, if he can avoid falling off stages and not sound like his handlers have slipped sedatives into his morning cuppa.
The Libs will continue to paint him as weak, something made easier by a term in which Albo sought to be the voice of reason but checked his passion at the door.
But in campaign mode, he will look to harden his rhetoric.
Can Dutton switch from the Trumpesque hyperbole and the negative bent of opposition to someone sounding like a prime minister who’s not going to add to the upset we are experiencing?
At the weekend, he showed he is still a head kicker, booting a football accidentally into a camera operator. The campaign trail can be a perilous place.
But he can also be direct, forthright and clear.
For many, it will be a matter of perception. Where some may be put off by Dutton’s manner, others will see strength. Where some prefer Albo’s restraint and nuance, others will see weakness.
For both Labor and Liberal, it will be the task to manage and manipulate those perceptions.
There are clear policy differences, but the focus is tightening to bread and butter issues. Albanese isn’t mentioning climate change much, and I expect Dutton will pull back on peripheral matters.
But it could be too late. Trump is now a truly scary figure, and any association with him is likely to be a liability.
As appears to be the case in Canada, Trump could be the deciding factor in Australia.
