Nationals backbencher Matt Canavan at CPAC in September. He’s denied he’s behind a push to coax Liberal MPs to defect to the ‘junior’ Coalition partner. Photo: Nationals
The Coalition can’t stop talking about itself, and the latest talk again centres on its very survival.
It’s about defecting Liberals, an ambitious movement inside the Nationals, and a tussle to be the first to claim the lion’s share of rightwing politics in Australia.
But it’s certainly not a new concept that has only just come to light this week.
Do the Nationals really want to be the senior conservative party in Australian politics?
Do they genuinely believe they should be the formal Federal Opposition?
Do they think such a lofty aim is within reach?
For some within the party, the answer to all three questions is a firm “yes”, but it is not a new idea that has just popped up.
Despite all the excitement over a report in The Australian this week suggesting a push was on to get seven Liberal Party members to defect to the Nationals, it’s not the first time the plan has been publicly aired.
In fact, the plotting began right after this year’s federal election that gave the Liberals their worst-ever defeat in their 81-year history.
In those few days when the Libs and Nats decided there would no longer be a Coalition agreement – and while recounts and challenges were still in the pipeline for some seats – some within the Nationals believed they had earned the right to Opposition.
All they had to do was coax a few Libs over to them.
Here’s what this author wrote for Region on 21 May:
All it would take is for the Nationals to convince fewer than 10 regional/rural-based Liberal Party Lower House MPs to defect to them, and the junior party would suddenly have the greater representation – and with it a more credible claim on seniority.
As far-fetched as that might sound, Region has obtained a list that’s already been made up of such Liberal MPs the Nationals want to target.
Some of those Liberal MPs are holding former National seats anyway, so it shouldn’t be that hard, right?
More level heads prevailed at the time, and the Coalition agreed to unite behind the Liberals under the leadership of Sussan Ley.
For some Nats, though, the top dog in Opposition idea remains too tempting to ignore – and is wholly within reach.
But why does it suddenly appear as though the plot is being reactivated with some vigour?
Region was also the first to report last week that rightwing political force Advance was in the throes of coaxing maverick Liberal MP Andrew Hastie to start a breakaway party – Team Australia.
Advance has already met with National Party sponsors.
If Hastie jumped, a handful of Liberals would likely follow.
This has rattled some elements within the National Party.
If Libs are going to be persuaded to leave their party, it should be to join them, the Nationals, not Advance’s Team Australia, or One Nation, or any other party.
So the push is on to convince seven federal Liberal parliamentarians that they should, in fact, be Nationals.
The Liberals hold 28 seats in the House of Representatives, while the Nationals have 15. If seven Liberal seats were to change, the Nationals would end up with one more seat than the Liberal Party.
With the strategy back in the news this week, the plot was put to a couple of high-profile Nationals for comment during media interviews on Thursday (16 October).
They denied being behind any such push, but their language revealed they are very aware of it being “on”.
Backbencher Matt Canavan, who was credited in The Australian’s report as being the architect of the plan, denied he was behind it and said he was not making any “direct” overtures.
But he didn’t deny it was on.
“I’m not actively pursuing it, so it’s a matter for those Liberals,” he told Sky News.
“But I can do maths as well as anybody else. Those numbers check out. If seven Liberals came to the National Party, the National Party would be His Majesty’s Opposition.
“I’ve said since the election that it would make sense for the National Party to take on a bigger share of the load of winning back government.”
Canavan said he’d love to have more people join the Nationals, but he was “not making any direct overtures”.
“That’s a matter for them,” he said.
Nationals frontbencher Bridget McKenzie said she would welcome anyone into the Nationals fold who supported the party’s ideals.
But she, publicly at least, doesn’t think coaxing Libs to the Nats is a good idea or one that will work, even though it is clear she is also aware of the plotting.
“Look, it’s true, seven is the magic number,” she told Nine News.
“I could be the Opposition Leader. But it’s not fantasy football.”
Indeed.
