President Trump and Vice-President Vance berate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. And Ukraine is an ally. Photo: White House.
It is somewhat ironic that after decades of a significant portion of Australians being irritated or outright hostile to the American alliance, when it actually becomes clear that Uncle Sam won’t necessarily come to our aid, it suddenly feels very lonely at the bottom of the world.
US President and Godfather Donald Trump’s recent antics have jolted Australians into realising that the Yanks may not be coming if needed.
The Europeans have had to digest zingers such as ‘You can forget NATO’, while Ukraine’s Churchillian war leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been publicly humiliated in the most excruciating way and the screws turned with the weapons and intelligence tap turned off to force him to cut a deal with the invader and Trump’s apparent strongman buddy Putin.
With friends like Trump and his unctuous toady JD Vance, who needs enemies?
The US even voted with Russia against a UN resolution on the invasion of Ukraine, something that must have made Ronald Reagan turn in his grave.
The lesson for all to see is that the US can’t be trusted. Hell, we’re not even sure it’s still a liberal democracy that shares certain values with us anymore.
Yet our leaders keep up the pretence that the US is still our best friend, even if we get hit with Trump’s tariff stick.
Trump has trashed the rules-based order and alliances that the US established and maintained since the end of World War II that guaranteed stability through the Cold War and beyond.
The price was marching alongside in conflicts from Korea to Vietnam to Afghanistan to Iraq, not a completely illustrious roll call but one that we thought kept us safe beneath the US shield.
Now the standover merchant in chief is transacting business differently and sending jitters through Europe, Taiwan, and Japan, and this liberal democratic outpost is a long way from like-minded friends (sorry, NZ).
Only last week a task force of Chinese naval ships steamed into the Tasman Sea for a live firing exercise and then sailed around the continent in a show of force.
Now we have an imperial China projecting power into the region and an imperious Trump changing the rules at whim. AUKUS, what’s that?
Let’s hope DFAT has a Plan B or even C. Maybe it’s just wait the old blowhard out and hope for a return to saner times.
That would be wishful thinking.
Unfortunately, this new paradigm will drive demands for greater defence spending, as is happening in the UK and Europe, which would eat into government programs and probably mean higher taxes to pay for it.
Yet, realistically Australia could spend mega bucks on defence (AUKUS is scary enough already) and still be at risk without alliances. That puts into the frame the unspeakable notion of acquiring our own nuclear deterrent, something that goes against every anti-proliferation grain in our being.
Other potential military allies in our neck of the woods would be rising India and Indonesia, but the only one that really counts is the US.
But what if America descends further into a quasi totalitarian oligarchic state that prefers to cut deals with the other gangsters and divide the globe into spheres of interest like the great powers of old.
Who will be worth protecting and who will be expendable? Will our rocks be enough?
Welcome to the new world disorder.
