6 May 2025

Reform only way forward for party to rebuild, Canberra Liberals told

| By Ian Bushnell
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people at the Liberal election event

It was a tough night for the Liberal faithful, including MLA Peter Cain. Photo: Michelle Kroll.

The Canberra Liberals will conduct a full review of the federal election outcome, in which the Liberal vote in the ACT fell to historic lows.

In a letter to party faithful, President Nick Tyrrell singled out the Coalition’s policy to axe 41,000 public services jobs in the national capital as particularly damaging to the Liberal cause in Canberra.

“The APS job cuts policy alienated not only Canberra voters but also businesspeople who depend on the public sector,” he said.

“I was contacted by many who usually vote Liberal but couldn’t support us this time for that reason.”

READ ALSO Public service breathes a collective sigh of relief after PM repeats his respect mantra

The damaging anti-Canberra rhetoric persisted despite ACT Opposition Leader Leanne Castley and Mr Tyrrell reaching out to the federal team about their concerns.

Mr Tyrrell said the local party must redouble its efforts to be heard, and he would lead a delegation of local business and community leaders to the federal party.

He remained committed to the future of the party, which must not be afraid of embracing reform.

“We’re now in Opposition again, with weakened numbers, no federal representation in the ACT, and growing support for independents,” he said.

“After Whitlam’s wipeout defeat in 1975, Labor rebuilt and returned to government under Bob Hawke within eight years. Their success came from reform, and we must do the same,” he said.

“There is no single silver bullet. We’ll conduct a formal review, and we must be honest and willing to confront our failures.”

Jacob Vadakkedathu

Senate candidate Jacob Vadakkedathu campaigning. His result is almost 8 per cent worse than Zed Seselja’s in 2022. Photo: Jacob Vadakkedathu.

Mr Tyrell flagged forums in the coming months to comprehensively discuss party values — where they come from, what they signal, and which ones to unite around.

He also said the party needed to rethink its selection of candidates, including timing, expectations, and how to attract and support outstanding members and candidates, especially women.

“We have been written off before, but we are not a spent force,” Mr Tyrrell said.

“Values such as individual freedom and responsibility, efficient government, strong families, and reward for effort are timeless principles that remain as relevant today as they have ever been.”

Mr Tyrrell said the Trump factor also had an impact with voters but defended federal leader Peter Dutton as a decent man.

The lack of Liberal representation in the Parliament will continue for a second term after Senator David Pocock solidified his position with an 18 per cent swing and topping the Senate poll.

Liberal lead candidate Jacob Vadakkedathu is sitting at 17 per cent, almost 8 per cent down on Zed Seselja’s vote in 2022.

In Bean, David Lamerton has been relegated to third place behind Labor’s David Smith and independent Jessie Price, who are battling it out for the seat.

Mr Lamerton garnered just 23 per cent of the vote, suffering a 6.6 per cent swing.

In Canberra, Will Roche mustered just 18 per cent with an almost 4 per cent swing against the Liberal Party.

The Liberals again finished in third place behind Green Isabel Mudford and sitting Labor member Alicia Payne, who romped home with a two-party swing of more than 7 per cent and nearly 70 per cent of the vote.

READ ALSO Barr seeking more responsive, efficient ACT Public Service from restructure as challenges loom

In the northern seat of Fenner, the swing against the party was almost 6 per cent. But Bola Olatunbosun may have done better than her 22 per cent if not for former Liberal MLA Elizabeth Kickkert standing as a Family First member (7.75%).

But that is only a reminder of the local party’s internal problems.

Sitting member Andrew Leigh won with a two-party preferred swing of 3.47 per cent and a vote also near 70 per cent, with Green Dani Hunterford securing 16 per cent of the vote.

After the 2022 result, a review conducted by Helen Kroger and Dr Mike Nahan found that a confused position on climate change, Scott Morrison’s leadership and the party being a turn-off for women voters were to blame.

Local party disunity had also played a role.

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Sterling Stillwater1:48 pm 08 May 25

One of the problems the Liberals have is that they constantly quote the combined vote of four parties as if it were one. Actual vote proportions (residual counts continuing) in 2025 are:
Libs 21%, 17 seats
LNP (Qld) , 16 seats
NP 4%, 9 seats
CLP (NT) 0.23%, 0 seats.

The Liberals are a small party, the coalition a grab-bag on the right, even preferencing PHON this time around. They were once the major party of the centre and right. Now they can barely match their Queensland seats across the rest of the country, and the Nationals cannot. Their rightward drift to NP and LNP positions, away from innovative businesses toward fossil mining, has largely destroyed them in the rest of Australia.

Leaving aside the swing to the ALP this time, it is obvious where the votes have gone. Count the teals and independents. Those people, centre-right, business experience, not scared witless by prospects of change, ought to be part of the Liberals. With their loss, the party has shed further votes because other people see them as either directionless or just going the wrong way.

The Liberals need first to think why are they so small, rather than starting by imagining they represent value today.

Sterling Stillwater3:00 pm 08 May 25

Accidentally omitted the percentage for LNP (Qld) in the above, 7%

And it’s almost impossible to come back to the centre right when they are running around blaming everyone else for the loss rather than acknowledge their abandonment of the sensible centre.

With the likes of Alex Antic at the top of the ticket in SA it’s very possibly that the Liberals instead of seeking to come back to the centre will listen to the likes of delusional Rowan Dean and go full MAGA, in which case they’re done.

chrisjeanemery1:41 pm 08 May 25

Having policies based on common sense would be a ood start.

HiddenDragon9:05 pm 07 May 25

“After Whitlam’s wipeout defeat in 1975, Labor rebuilt and returned to government under Bob Hawke within eight years. Their success came from reform, and we must do the same,”

The problem with that glass somewhat more than half full analogy is that the federal Liberals have no Bob Hawke in the wings awaiting coronation at the right moment, nor an obvious Bill Hayden equivalent who will have the determination and latitude to lead the long hard slog of reform and rebuilding. The civil war which has broken out today over nuclear power is a more likely sign of what the coming years hold for the federal Liberals.

Instead of hoping forlornly for a federal Liberal messiah and/or renaissance, or for Labor to be hit by a series of major stuff-ups and misfortunes that Albanese and Chalmers are not able to b/s their way out of, the non-Labor forces in the ACT would do better to break away from the federal party, adopt a new name and form, in effect, a new party focused on the ACT which could advocate for this town on the principles of true liberalism, unencumbered by the baggage of a federal party and its policies aimed at voters who do not share the world view of the majority of Canberrans.

Pushing out the moderates to appease the pro-coal mining Nats was a mistake. Now they’re both stuffed. You’re right there is no road back via the LNP short of monumental stuff ups from Labor. But anything even close to stable government whilst the Trump clown show destroys America will see Labor easily returned in 2028. I can’t see a breakaway party working in the ACT unless they actually shed the far right in the process.

Take a good look through the ACT & Federal Libs, really you wouldn’t feed them, it’s all about “happy in opposition” and getting a salary, ACT Libs have had some members in opposition for nineteen, “19” years.

Start by throwing out all your policies and start from the start. Don’t wait 2 years and 9 months to release new ones and make sure they are costed correctly. This goes for ACT government and federal .

Propose some real reform starting with tax and workplace relations.

With the ACT government its tired and lazy and a change is required but at this point in time there is no other option but labor.

Give me a reason to change my vote and i will do it

Another free piece of advice for the Canberra Liberals*. Regardless of the economics and the good or bad of the tram, people have voted on this issue repeatedly and “Stop the Tram” has lost every single time.

So come up with a plan to finish the tram project better. And I don’t mean a pretend “Stop the Tram” plan hidden behind a facade of doing things better. Canberrans will see through that quicker than an Alastair Coe Bo-Jo stunt rip off or trying to hide Jeremy Hanson behind Elizabeth Lee. But an actual plan to build the tram better that actually make sense.

* That they won’t take.

Totally agree. It’s time to move on from the Tram. To me not cost efficient but a great ride. Time to move on and as you said make it better. Canberra obviously is not worried about it as an issue.

The fallacy of sunk costs. If the next stage of the tram is not good business, then it should not continue.

It’s not about sunk costs it’s about will of the people.

But I don’t think that any party featuring someone with Jeremy Hanson’s views should be in power well anywhere but certainly not in a progressive electorate like ours. So keep pushing “Stop the Tram” with Jeremy DJA if it keeps him out of power then good.

You are right – the sunk costs are not the issue. It is the continuing on when a decision no longer makes sense that is the core of the fallacy. And is the will of the people to have a tram, or to have effective public transport? Sometimes they are both the same, and sometimes they are not. Knowing the right question to ask is part of the problem.
And a final point on your ‘will of the people’ – how well is that working out for the United States?

Seano,
You keep pushing that the Canberra Liberals are incompetent and their values do not reflect those of the Canberra community making them unelectable. And that’s mostly correct across the broader population.

But at the same time you claim we positively voted for the tram multiple times at elections.

The inherent contradiction in those positions is obvious and we don’t get to vote on single issues come election time.

And that’s not even starting on the economic unviability of the tram as shown by the government’s own evidence and reports as raised by DJA.

I agree that the Canberra Liberal’s far right leanings and their refusal to move to the centre are a large part of why they don’t win elections here. As I pointed out at the time a clear mood for change was evident in the election of two independents but Canberrans did want to risk the Liberals.

However Canberra Liberal disfunction aside, it is undeniable that a key platform in the last 3 elections at least has been “Stop the Tram”.

At some point the Canberra Liberals have to accept that “Stop the Tram” should become “Do the Tram Better”*.

* And that has to be genuinely better plan for the tram and public transport, “Stop the Tram” is not a public transport policy.

DJA – The Canberra Liberals have lost multiple elections with “Stop the Tram” as a key platform.

Comparing that to the united states where a small minority elected Trump on a platform of lowering prices. No one voted for the chaos, incompetence or authoritarian overreach. It’s a false equivalence.

* when I say no one voted for the chaos, incompetence and authoritarian overreach that’s not quite right a good portion of Trump’s base likely did but even parts of his base are (according to the polls) starting to show signs of softening.

Seano,
As discussed previously, the Canberra Liberals went to the 2020 election with a policy of supporting light rail on the successful completion of a robust business case.

You can argue they weren’t really committed or the electorate didn’t trust that policy, but they most definitely didn’t go to that election with a “Stop The Tram” policy.

They actually went backwards at that election from the 2016 result.

The problem with your position on “do the tram better” is that the only way that can be achieved is to delay the implementation until the demand and economics can support the project on its own merits, as the city grows and densifies.

It cannot be delivered cheaper and there is no way to make it more economically viable that isn’t already being done.

This is partially what the government is doing by stealth with delays to implementation and only proposing to deliver one stage a decade, whilst publicly claiming full steam ahead on Light Rail.

Which leaves us a far worse overall public transport system in the interim, with public transport usage going backwards over the last decade as a proportion of travel.

The only possible avenue is for the Federal government to fund Light Rail for us. But that really just means getting other taxpayers to fund our political folly.

Let’s say I accept everything you’ve said here for the sake of argument.

Why did the Canberra Liberals not make this case? Jeremy Hanson who is already a huge concern for many voters standing there saying “If you want to Stop The Tram vote for me” isn’t making that case. As I said it’s not a public transport policy but does look like cheap populism.

As to other taxpayers funding the tram, I know I live in Canberra but I don’t have a problem with this on any level. My taxes have funded plenty of things I don’t or will ever use elsewhere in Australia and even some things I might not agree with but that’s the price we pay for living in a society. Having a functional national capital is worth funding.

“Why did the Canberra Liberals not make this case?”

Because as we’ve already agreed, the vast majority of them are grossly incompetent and are unable put together the rational position on improving public transport with the most efficient option.

I also think considering their base that many of their members aren’t even interested in better Public Transport in the first place.

Which leaves very little room for a sensible debate in Parliament although I was glad to see Fiona Carrick get elected in 2024. Her policies were very much in line with a position of improving public transport in the most efficient way possible.

It’s also a very populist position for the government to rail against with promotion of the “shiny new thing”.
Because most voters don’t understand the economics or how infrastructure should be planned and approved and haven’t really been presented with credible alternatives.

“My taxes have funded plenty of things I don’t or will ever use elsewhere in Australia and even some things I might not agree with but that’s the price we pay for living in a society.”

That’s fine as far as it goes but I would suggest that Federal funding should follow defined processes to ensure the most efficient use of taxpayer funds.

Which also minimises and prevents the risk of pork barreling and government waste that we have numerous examples of in recent decades.

If the Feds fund future stages of Light Rail (in the short term), it won’t be because the project has passed through the existing rigorous infrastructure funding assessment processes, it will be because its bypassed them for political reasons. You won’t find any mention of it on the government’s priority infrastructure list.

I’d prefer we only funded things that can be justified through robust options analyses and economic assessments. That way i know our taxpayer dollars are being used efficiently whether i directly benefit or not.

Seano is starting to sound like an alter-ego of Penfold. Elections are won on single issues, until they are not (Seano decides which it is when it suits). No one voted for X, unless they actually did (Seano decides which it is when it suits).
My comparison with the US was in response to your comment on the will of the people and the underlying implication that it was the smarter choice. Trump was installed as President based on the will of the people. Funnily enough, if you look at the overall percentages they look similar to the percentages from the recent ACT election.
Seano, at some stage you will have to make up your mind: Did Labor win because:
a) Labor are building tram and everyone wants one.
b) Liberals said “Stop the Tram” and everyone wants one.
c) Labor’s overall governing package seemed better (it’s the vibe).
d) Liberals are generally unelectable (i.e. no single issue – it’s the vibe).
I get it, you are a massive fan of the tram, and nothing else matters. I can live with that. But at some stage the scales must fall from your eyes and you will see that fiscal responsibility should prevail over shiny toys. And that the ‘will of the people’ is not as clear cut as you want to make out.

“Because as we’ve already agreed, the vast majority of them are grossly incompetent and are unable put together the rational position on improving public transport with the most efficient option.”

Fair enough Chewy.

DJA “Seano is starting to sound like an alter-ego of Penfold. ” what a dumb comment.

“Elections are won on single issues, until they are not (Seano decides which it is when it suits). No one voted for X, unless they actually did (Seano decides which it is when it suits).”

I never said anything of the sort. I criticised the Liberals public transport offering (and their refusal to move towards the sensible centre) and pointed out “stop the tram” is not a public transport policy. I at no stage claimed the Liberals won or lost on any single issue. You’re literally making it up.

The rest of your comment is absolute drivel. The “make up your mind” false dichotomy presented is laughably framed around a position you made up. Puerile stuff.

The Canberra Liberals have not made their case over the tram although reading Chewy’s comments they clearly could and should have. And I am happy to accept that I was wrong on that. But I stand by the view that they’ve lost the argument here and will continue to lose on this issue until they come up with an alternative plan and people who can articulate it to the electorate. Two things they don’t have now.

Seano,
I think both the most recent local and federal election show that Canberrans can vote for alternative and sensible alternatives which have recently come in the form of independents as the Liberal offering fails.

I think that’s a good thing for the city, because historically I had thought the town was simply too rusted on to vote anything other than the ALP.

I hope that trend can continue or the Liberals significantly pick up their game, which doesn’t look promising.

@chewy14
I certainly agree, that it’s good to see the rusted on ALP voters thinking outside the square, in the last ACT election by opting for Carrick and Emerson, and federally in Pocock and Price. Even if the latter doesn’t end up getting over the line, she has proven that the Labor stranglehold in the HoR seats can definitely be broken.

Yes, the Libs need to lift their game – again both locally and federally.

I saw a report, that the (highly likely) “forgiven” Tim Wilson, in Goldstein, who I always thought was a sensible moderate Liberal, has come out and said the Liberal Party should stick with nuclear. So, if a moderate like Wilson is flogging that dead horse, I absoutely agree it doesn’t look promising that the Libs will lift their game.

“I hope that trend can continue or the Liberals significantly pick up their game, which doesn’t look promising.”

Yes agree too. I don’t think the demise of the centre-right small “L” Liberal party isn’t good for our country but the party that’s preferencing One Nation 2nd can certainly go the way of the dinosaurs. Hopefully a new centre right party will rise from the Teals and Independents.

Better 20 years late than never I suppose.

Peter Graves11:06 am 07 May 25

Suggestions:
(1) stop insulting “Canberra” (a la Morrison’s “Canberra Bubble”).

(2) try hard to get the media to stop using “Canberra” as a metonym for decisions by the federal Government elected by the people of Australia.

(3) Stop insulting staff of the Australian Public Service and their service(s) to the people of Australia. They are not US-style pawns in political brawling.

(4) start taking pride in Canberra. It’s the nation’s capital, designed and situated to be that – one of the very few national capitals explicitly so designed. By Marion and Walter Burley Griffin.

They need to look at more than their potential federal candidates. The loss at the ACT election still hasn’t been addressed. People of Canberra do want an alternative to successive Labor governments, but the Liberals are not offering an alternative. The perception that hard right are still lurking in the background is a real concern. The perceived white anting of Elizabeth Lee (a moderate) bothered the community. The installation of Leanne Castely did not alleviate those concerns. There is a perception she is just a place marker until an even more right wing candidate makes his (and I do mean his) move.

The candidates who were selected for the latest federal run were not well known in the community (and by the way, who thought a 19YO with no life experience was the best option?). People did not know who they were voting for and when there were already concerns about the internal politics of the ACT Liberals, it was a red flag. This is all separate to the problem of Dutton & his contempt of Canberra.

Some fair points megsy though I’m not sure how Lee was white anted.

The Libs aren’t going to get candidates up in federal elections any more, Canberra’s too left leaning. John Haslem was the last Lib elected to the House in 1977.

As for the future, hope you’re right. Barr is completely on the nose and the Libs need to get some decent policies and people to help boot him and Labor out.

Actually I think Brendan Smyth was elected member for Canberra in 1995.

You are correct, there was a by-election.

@Elf
Absolutely correct, Elf.

Brendan Smyth won the seat of Canberra at the 1995 by-election, following the resignation from parliament, of the former Labor Sports Minister, Ros Kelly, over the ‘sports rorts affair’.

Good to see those googling skills back JS.

@Penfold
Yes, indeed, Penfold. Unlike you, I prefer to verify my facts, while you obviously don’t mind being made to look foolish.

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder JS. Especially ones with two eyes open 👀

Perhaps you should have verified that Howard interest rate “fact” before hitting submit. Too late 🫣

@Penfold
I did verify my “Liberal party campaign” fact, Penfold. Which as I have stated before, and in the other thread today, Howard admitted was wrong.

Perhaps you need to learn a few things to avoid looking foolish:
1. Read the actual comment before you make an erroneous statement and hit submit;
2 Use google to actually check your ‘facts’; and
3 Yes – open both of your eyes to avoid making jaundiced comments.

I’ll give credit to the Liberal candidates.

Dutton was so anti-Canberra that he singled it out for attack, and announced he wasn’t going to live in The Lodge.

That shows incredible disrespect and disdain for the Liberal candidates running here.

Those candidates must be really dedicated to run under those conditions.

Or perhaps really stupid.

The talk of Liberal Party reform with a picture of Peter Cain drinking a lemonade while chatting to some old geezer made me laugh.

Cain, Castley and particularly Hanson are much closer to Dutton than they are to Turnbull and that’s one reason ACT Liberals are going to continue to struggle.

As for raising concerns over Dutton’s threatened mindless cuts to the APS, a bit of hand wringing in the background because they were worried about how it would impact their electoral chances is weak when they should have vocally fighting bad policy that would have adversely impacted their prospective constituents.

Of course it’s hard to fight against bad culture wars driven policy when many of your members agree with it.

What’s wrong with lemonade?

More importantly what’s wrong with a party that is stuck in culture wars, climate denial, extreme social views and trying to get around the electorate rather than moving towards the electorate.

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